Financial markets and the economy in 2022
Financial analysis is more than a myopic exercise in indicators and percentages. Lest anyone should think otherwise: The defining event of 2022, by far, was the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The financial world lost no time in condemning it as a horrifying act of aggression but, in retrospect, took far longer to realize the financial consequences. One week after the invasion, the S&P 500 was up almost 4%. At the end of the year, it was an altogether different story.
In times of crisis, capital tends to flow towards the US market, generally considered a safe haven. Not so in 2022. With a loss of 18.1%, the S&P 500 stood out in negative terms. The STOXX Europe 600 was down 10.1% and the MSCI Nordic Countries lost 7.9%, while the FTSE 100 returned 0.9% – in the black. The Norway OSE benchmark lost a mere 1.0%.
That was but one of the surprises in 2022.
More on the market and the economy this year.
2022 in a nutshell
| OSEBX | -1.0% |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 return | -18.1% |
| MSCI World net (USD) | -18.1% |
| 3-month NIBOR | from 0.95 to 3.26% |
| 10 year Norwegian Treasury | from 1.70 to 3,17% |
| 10 year Swedish Treasury | from 0.21 to 2.39% |
| 10 year US Treasury | from 1.51 to 3.88% |
| Brent Blend | from USD 77.78 to USD 85.91 |
|---|---|
| USD/NOK | from 8.82 to 9.85 |
| EUR/NOK | from 10.03 to 10.51 |
| USD/SEK | from 9.05 to 10.42 |
| GDP growth, global | 3.4% |
| GDP growth, Norway | 3.3% |
| GDP growth, Sweden | 2.6% |
| GDP growth, Mainland Norway | 3.8% |
Sources: Oslo Børs, S&P Dow Jones Indices, MSCI, Norges Bank, FactSet, IMF, SSB, SCB, Riksbanken, Pareto.