Financial markets and the economy in 2022
Financial analysis is more than a myopic exercise in indicators and percentages. Lest anyone should think otherwise: The defining event of 2022, by far, was the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The financial world lost no time in condemning it as a horrifying act of aggression but, in retrospect, took far longer to realize the financial consequences. One week after the invasion, the S&P 500 was up almost 4%. At the end of the year, it was an altogether different story.
In times of crisis, capital tends to flow towards the US market, generally considered a safe haven. Not so in 2022. With a loss of 18.1%, the S&P 500 stood out in negative terms. The STOXX Europe 600 was down 10.1% and the MSCI Nordic Countries lost 7.9%, while the FTSE 100 returned 0.9% – in the black. The Norway OSE benchmark lost a mere 1.0%.
That was but one of the surprises in 2022.
2022 in a nutshell
|S&P 500 return||-18.1%|
|MSCI World net (USD)||-18.1%|
|3-month NIBOR||from 0.95 to 3.26%|
|10 year Norwegian Treasury||from 1.70 to 3,17%|
|10 year Swedish Treasury||from 0.21 to 2.39%|
|10 year US Treasury||from 1.51 to 3.88%|
|Brent Blend||from USD 77.78 to USD 85.91|
|USD/NOK||from 8.82 to 9.85|
|EUR/NOK||from 10.03 to 10.51|
|USD/SEK||from 9.05 to 10.42|
|GDP growth, global||3.4%|
|GDP growth, Norway||3.3%|
|GDP growth, Sweden||2.6%|
|GDP growth, Mainland Norway||3.8%|
Sources: Oslo Børs, S&P Dow Jones Indices, MSCI, Norges Bank, FactSet, IMF, SSB, SCB, Riksbanken, Pareto.